Part 1 defines my 4 core scenarios (Syria, Libya, Hybrid, Escalation) with probabilities.
Part 2's winners/losers matrix expanded to 7 scenarios (S1-S7) -- where
S1: Quarantine/Blockade (a sub-variant)
S6: OPEC+ Loosens
S7: OPEC+ Tightens
"Probability shift" is meant to describe how the original 4-scenario probabilities update when a trigger fires. For example, "Syria: 20% ---> 40%" means if Machado gets sworn in, I'd revise my Syria Model probability upward. Hope this helps!
What is the definition of the term "Probability shift"?
Also what is "S7"? (if it is a "scenario" I do not see it listed)
Hi Tim -
Part 1 defines my 4 core scenarios (Syria, Libya, Hybrid, Escalation) with probabilities.
Part 2's winners/losers matrix expanded to 7 scenarios (S1-S7) -- where
S1: Quarantine/Blockade (a sub-variant)
S6: OPEC+ Loosens
S7: OPEC+ Tightens
"Probability shift" is meant to describe how the original 4-scenario probabilities update when a trigger fires. For example, "Syria: 20% ---> 40%" means if Machado gets sworn in, I'd revise my Syria Model probability upward. Hope this helps!
Yours is certainly a sane action plan but its strength is its explicit layout, subjective as the input-assessments may be.
One bet that will survives under just about all scenarios is the midstream. If you do any follow ups, include your opinion on that.