The good news is that you didn't miss the run -- you just own the wrong half.
If you've been in QQQ the whole time and wondering why you're not up 76%, you're not late to AI. You're in software (IGV), not semiconductors (SMH).
Chasing SMH at +76% YTD is exactly the mistake you're supposed to avoid. You'd be buying momentum into what's already priced. And if the capex pause happens—or if semis simply consolidate—you get whipsawed.
So I'd say stop asking if you missed it. Instead, look at which half of QQQ you own, and whether that half is where the capex is going.
Practically, this means take a look at what you own inside QQQ. If it's software-heavy (Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe, Datadog, etc.), you're not behind the AI run. You're on the wrong side of the structural margin transfer. Being behind QQQ performance isn't a timing problem—it's a positioning problem.
But don't chase SMH -- rotate into it. Sell underperforming software names (or IGV if you own it as a basket). Move that capital into semiconductor exposure (SMH or single names like NVDA, AMD, ASML, QCOM). You shouldn't be FOMO-buying but rather following the capex dollar.
If you're genuinely in broad QQQ and haven't been paying attention, don't start now by chasing. Just hold it. I mean QQQ is up 16.6% YTD. That's still a good year! The issue is active managers who thought they were in "AI" but were actually in software. If you're indexed and not trying to beat anything, QQQ is fine.
What to do now if already missed the AI growth run? Chase at these levels or keep buying QQQ?
Good article by the way
Thanks!
The good news is that you didn't miss the run -- you just own the wrong half.
If you've been in QQQ the whole time and wondering why you're not up 76%, you're not late to AI. You're in software (IGV), not semiconductors (SMH).
Chasing SMH at +76% YTD is exactly the mistake you're supposed to avoid. You'd be buying momentum into what's already priced. And if the capex pause happens—or if semis simply consolidate—you get whipsawed.
So I'd say stop asking if you missed it. Instead, look at which half of QQQ you own, and whether that half is where the capex is going.
Practically, this means take a look at what you own inside QQQ. If it's software-heavy (Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe, Datadog, etc.), you're not behind the AI run. You're on the wrong side of the structural margin transfer. Being behind QQQ performance isn't a timing problem—it's a positioning problem.
But don't chase SMH -- rotate into it. Sell underperforming software names (or IGV if you own it as a basket). Move that capital into semiconductor exposure (SMH or single names like NVDA, AMD, ASML, QCOM). You shouldn't be FOMO-buying but rather following the capex dollar.
If you're genuinely in broad QQQ and haven't been paying attention, don't start now by chasing. Just hold it. I mean QQQ is up 16.6% YTD. That's still a good year! The issue is active managers who thought they were in "AI" but were actually in software. If you're indexed and not trying to beat anything, QQQ is fine.